China's shipbuilding industry is facing the development trend of W
After a brief rebound, China shipbuilding industry is in the doldrums. The latest data show that in September the British Clarkson, China new orders 520 thousand deadweight tons, down 88% tons from August 4 million 470 thousand. 6-8 months of strong rebound trend failed to continue.
Industry experts told reporters that from the beginning of June, the volume of the new ship rebound is not the nature of the demand for the birth of. The development of marine industry still faces many uncertainties, may be after the "W" shaped trend in the short term, hardly pick up.
Experience a short return
With the global warming of the economy, China shipbuilding industry is showing signs of revival in June.
China Shipbuilding Industry Association data show that in June China's shipbuilding capacity of 12 million 330 thousand tons, an increase of 60.2%. The new orders were 41 ship 4 million 700 thousand deadweight tons, out of the new addition of the first 5 months of this year alone are not the lowest in more than one million dwt. In July, China's new orders for shipping enterprises to more than 4 million 100 thousand tons, leading the world shipbuilding industry ranked the top two in Japan and South korea. August, China signed a new order of 4 million 350 thousand tons of heavy trucks, occupying 70% of the world's new orders, 3 consecutive months to create the world's first shipbuilding.
At the same time, the withdrawal of orders began to slow down. China Shipbuilding Industry Association statistics, 1-8 months of the country to cancel the ship orders 84, 3 million 996 thousand tons of heavy trucks, accounting for about 2.1% of the total amount of the ship in the end of August. Among them, in August the cancellation of orders 116 thousand, 9 tons of heavy. And from October to the end of August this year, the country to cancel the ship orders totaled 181, 6 million 70 thousand tons of heavy trucks, accounting for about 3.2% of the total amount of the ship in the end of August.
Previously, Zhejiang Chenzhou ship industry group general manager told reporters that the number of seedling roots, from the beginning of June, the company to negotiate business customers more obvious signs of recovery, is indeed. "If a day before 1 people to talk about business, it can be said that there are 10 people to talk about."
There is no real demand for support
In the view of Chinese ship industrial economic research center industry analyst Liang Zhiyong, in this volume does not become a symbol of the wave warming industry, because this change is multi factors.
First of all, the worst of the financial crisis has passed, the world economy has recovered, the global shipping market has a stage to pick up. In addition, the recent Australian LNG project approved, ShtokmanLNG project in Russia steadily and large-scale custom-made plan Brazil's national oil company, promoted the development of LNG ship and marine engineering equipment market." Liang Zhiyong said.
Secondly, the new ship prices have dropped to the bottom near, many owners take the opportunity to bargain hunting. A former Cape of Good Hope bulk cargo ship may need $100 million, and now only need $60 million or lower, a substantial decline in the price of the ship to reduce the owner's investment costs, which also spawned a number of trading volume.
"The most important is that the national policy has played a great role in promoting. At present, the relevant government departments actively implement the shipbuilding industry adjustment and revitalization plan, especially in terms of loans given to buy a ship's foreign owners to a certain financial support. In addition, the state promulgated the implementation of the 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus policy, so that the domestic iron ore, coal and other import surge, which is one of the reasons for the recent growth in the volume of the ship." Liang Zhiyong said.
Shenyin report also pointed out that the last round of turnover rebound lack of sustainability, the East is still no large-scale ship ship will and impulse.
The shipbuilding industry will undergo a W - shaped trend
September turnover fell sharply, so that China's shipbuilding industry to pick up the desire to fall. And the new ship price, sea freight index and other data of the downturn also proved that China's shipbuilding industry is still low shock.
At the end of September, reflecting the market situation of the Clark Song new ship price composite index fell to 142 points, 190 points lower than the highest value of 48 points, a decline of 25%. Industry analysts said that the new ship price is a reflection of the ship's market is an important symbol of prosperity, the current decline in the price of new ships also indicates that the effective demand for the ship market is insufficient. A short recovery in the international shipping market downturn, the Baltic Sea index (BDI) fell 10% in August, to further decline in September.
The number of roots to reporters, said: the current market is still unstable, lack of adequate support to pick up. Market stability needs to be stimulated by national policy. On the one hand, we must limit the age of the boat, on the one hand is the support of financial loans."
The day before the news, the revitalization of ship industry rules file is expected to be issued in the near future, and documents related to the early elimination of old ships, regulate and encourage technology development of shipping enterprises and shipbuilding industry mergers and acquisitions.
"The ship industry after a huge adjustment, future development there are still many uncertainties, the development trend is likely to form W after the next few years, hardly pick up in the short term." Liang Zhiyong said.
In this regard, President of Shipbuilding Industry Association Chinese Zhang Guangqin said: "the ship enterprises need to calm analysis of market requirements, the production rhythm adjustment to the owner, will focus on grasping the order, in basic skills training, to ensure the delivery of the ship."
